segfault…coredump…whatever…

waiting for plane. delay = bored hoo. brain.dump();

************************************

– The mobile revolution starts in July 2008
– The next major community will rise from mobile (prob iPhone)
– Bye, bye desktop PC
– Dell will move into digital services
– Most web apps will be built from one, or more, widgets from different service providers
– Social applications are a half-step towards widgets getting access to social context
– Apps will go backward, before we go forward
– Widgets from different providers will share common social context
– Users will be able to login to different services using a single login
– Users will be able to move their content, contacts, and applications easily between providers
– The future of the social graph is federated, not centralized
– OpenID will be driven by the desire to leverage shared social context across services
– Web standards will seep into mobile and television
– Television as we know it is dead
– The desktop as we know it is dead
– Owners of television budgets will take over online budgets as video moves webside
– The dynamic tension between creators of the browser, desktop, and social networking sites will drive their convergence
– Javascript will equal Actionscript
– Javascript will look more like Java
– Google is the next Microsoft
– Microsoft is the next IBM
– Facebook COULD be the next Google (or AOL)
– Adobe is a silent force that could disrupt all – 99% of users penetrated!
– AMZN vs. GOOG for Core Services (storage, queuing, commerce engine)
– Comcast vs. Google – network vs. services
– Google vs. Sun – cloud vs. server
– Google and MSFT will battle for Salesforce
– Comcast will try to get into mobile
– AOL will get spun out and their market cap won’t be far from Yahoo
– The winners of the Cloud Wars will have lock-in unlike any company in the history of companies
– The web WILL require that widgets interoperate and use social context WITHOUT all widgets being hosted on Goog/FB
– User will win, but there will only be a few massive companies standing at the end because of scale
– The web will tend towards liquidity – behold the exchanges (ads, apps, content, whatever)
– DRM is not dead, it will just come in a different form
– You will never install software again
– You will never save a file to a location again
– Hooman sleeps
– Privacy backlash
– Google gets into outdoor display, movie advertisements, and other forms of media
– Google becomes known as the largest media company on the planet
– Ad Agencies continue to consolidate – some leverage cash to jump into platform/network world

hoomanradfar Written by:

  • http://www.iherebydecree.com David

    Interesting ideas. I do agree with you that Javascript will begin to be more powerful, Actionscript has something going for it in that it has a virtual machine that is, across all (most) browsers and systems always the same. Javascript can vary wildly depending on where it is interpreted. Maybe that is what you meant about Javascript becoming more like Java. Anyway, for Javascript to become more like Actionscript it would depend too much on the browser makers and whichever browser had the most market share. They could always go the plugin/vm but then it would take away one of the things that makes it attractive.

    Also, I hope facebook never becomes the next Google. That would be very scary indeed.

  • http://www.clearspring.com Hooman Radfar

    Thanks David. It's interesting because Adobe is running the ECMA group which effectively determines the standard for Javascript. So, my prediction is a bit of a cheat!

    With respect to FB, I think they CAN be the next Goog. They are quickly sucking up the namespace for the social graph and with this service as a beachhead, will have the ability to upsell other services to users. This is not unlike how Google leveraged their search engine distribution to deliver other services. Moreover, like Google, Facebook also is building a solid set of core web services – storage, queuing, etc – that will enable it to roll out new services.